NFL Week 4

I feel like I'm totally missing the mark on this season, which is a great thing! It feels a lot like last season. Just when you think you know what to expect, the opposite happens. It's a great thing as a fan because you're always on your toes. Did anyone expect the Lions, Bills and 49ers would be where they were a month into football? Absolutely not. All three have been turd sandwiches for the better part of a decade so to see them get going so strongly is awesome as a fan of the perennial underdogs.

My predictions went 10/15 (the MNF game hasn't been decided at the time of me posting. It's tied 17 all with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter, so worst that can happen is I repeat 10/16 like I did last week). Not all together that bad, and other than one egregious wishful thinking on my part, nobody really predicted the games I didn't get right.

(Edit: Looks like Tampa is going to win, up 7 with the ball and just 2 minutes left to go. We'll go ahead and say 11/16.)

I don't know what I was thinking picking the Raiders of the Pats because the Patriots never lose back-to-back games. I thought the Raiders were going to keep up that epic running game, but as all the ESPN talking heads point out daily, the Patriots are okay with allowing you to play offense against them. It just isn't going to be the offense your team is used to playing, because they take away your best weapon. Oakland can't rely on their passing game. I'll give Campbell some credit for showing he can still be a legit starter in the league. He's playing much better for the Raiders than he ever did for the Redskins. Still, he's not a 300 yard a game type of guy and never will be.

I'm utterly shocked Cincinnati won a game against upstart Buffalo. How can you circle the wagons against New England and lose to the Bungles?! Just unacceptable. Buffalo couldn't get any offensive production out of anyone, and it was eerie. Cincinnati defense is bad. I'm not surprised the Bengals scored 23 points; I'm surprised they limited the Bills (who've been playing great thus far) to just 20.

Minnesota is bizarre. I've never seen a team so completely different in each half of the game. Another game off to a good start, another game lost in the second half. Except this time to the Chiefs, formerly the 32nd ranked team in the league in pretty much every single possible category. It's a headscratcher. You have arguably the best running back in the league. You've got amazing talented wide recievers. You've got some of the best pass rushers in the league between the Williams brothers and Jared Allen. And you lose. Every game. They are totally done for the season now because the two BEST teams in the league are in their division, and Chicago is pretty decent themselves. It's a hole they can't dig themselves out of. I feel bad McNabb's otherwise great career is dead, because he's never getting another job again. David Garrard will find a backup position even if he doesn't play this season faster than McNabb will after he gets released from his contract at the end of this season.

How about them Eagles, eh? I remember when they had all those big signings. I was excited to see them play. And it's just a wreck in that town. Unlike the other losses here, it wasn't necessarily their game to win because San Fran is playing really, really well. Those Harbaugh boys really know how to coach a team and it's kind of cool having brothers head coach two different teams in the NFL. (How great would it be if the Manning brothers were the QBs on each respective team? Total pipedream but I'd love it.) Still, the Eagles are garbage on defense. People are laying the blame on Vick and that's unacceptable. He played out of his mind this Sunday, and all the games up to this point, his team was up until he got hurt every time. That defense is just bad. I lay the blame on the D-Coordinator, because seriously it's ugly. You have the second best cover corner in the league, another star corner in Rodgers-Cromartie, and yet your passing defense is atrocious. Makes no sense. Figure it out, Philly.

That Miami over San Diego pick looked solid until Henne got hurt. I swear to god watching a Chargers game sets me on edge as I consider myself a fan of the team. They just do not look sharp at all. It's amazing to me they've actually won 3 of the first 4 games of the year for the first time since Norv Turner took over. Proof that scheduling helps a ton.

Notes on other games:
Steelers, where has the O-Line gone? Big Ben is one of the best QBs in the league for getting out of trouble once a play breaks down but he can't do it literally every single down. I'm surprised this game was even as close as it was. It's painful to watch my team, and that makes me sad.

Dallas = choke artists, and I couldn't love it more.

Matt Hasslebeck defies age. I've always liked him as a QB and watching his resurgence in Tennessee is kind of neat.

Carolina had another close game. They feel very Lions-esque from a few years ago. Couldn't win a game but everyone recognized there was a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball and the young stars are due to break out soon.

The Denver/Green Bay game wasn't as lopsided as the final score indicated. Two key turnovers early is what catapulted the lead, plus a super tricky onside kick call made the lead insurmountable early, but Denver hung in there and still put up numbers. Green Bay has the same problem as the other "best teams in the league" and that's a suspect defense. I actually think New England is the better team, and both are extremely similar. We can throw New Orleans in that mix as well, because they are all opportunistic defenses who can afford to give up points because the guy under center can cover just about any deficit your team can incur. If Aaron Rodgers was the slightest bit human Sunday, Denver could have actually pulled that one out and I really believe that.

That Baltimore/New York game was just ugly. What gives, Flacco? At least the Jets have the excuse of missing their pro-bowl center for all the offensive line breakdowns they've had. What about you? Missed a ton of easy passes, overthrew a zillion guys, and just played terrible. Inexcusable. And San-chise, stop buying into the hype around yourself. You're a USC Quarterback. The last bajillion of them have all been NFL busts. Rex Ryan needs to stop coddling you and go ahead and shock your confidence level for a week. I'm not saying he needs to be thrown under a bus but other guys on the team need to specifically say "Sanchez needs to step it up or we're not going to win many games." Because it's the truth. They will only go as far as he can take them, and right now that looks like it'll be a 6-10 season.

Predictions for week 5:

New Orleans over Carolina: Another close game for the Panthers, but you're not going to beat Drew Brees with the shoddy defense you've got. Sorry, mates.
Indianapolis over Kansas City: If there's ever a team for Indy to finally beat and get out of the winless column, this is it.
Buffalo over Philadelphia: Buffalo can't afford to drop two in a row. Philly can't stop the passing game if the Buffalo offensive coordinator can come up with a decent game plan.
Seattle over New York Giants: The Giants are still playing inconsistent football. By all rights they deserved to lose this week. I just think the sloppy play catches up to them finally against a team desperate to not lose another close game.
Cincinnati over Jacksonville: This should be an interesting game. I hope it's on TV so I can watch it, but either way its another battle of rookie QBs. Dalton is the better of the two so I think they're safe.
Tennessee over Pittsburgh: Could it be I picked against my own team two weeks in a row? Seems that way. Pittsburgh's time in the spotlight is over. They need a change at QB and younger guys on defense.
Oakland over Houston: Oakland is still playing solid football, and Houston's best offensive weapon is likely out with a hamstring injury. Oakland's D-line is big and physical and can stop the run.
Minnesota over Arizona: I am just selling my Cardinals stock is all. Minny can't really go 0-5, can they?
San Francisco over Tampa Bay: Comes down to which team I think is streaking versus which team I think is shrinking.
New England over New York Jets: Jets were abysmal in a way you can't fix in a week and they are about to meet the Cyborg. Expect the Brady Machine to roll.
Denver over San Diego: Denver's offense looked as good as it has since Jay Cutler left against Green Bay. If they can keep it up and play minimal mistake football, San Diego's inability to play consistent football is going to catch up to them.
Green Bay over Atlanta: I'm not picking against Green Bay until they meet a team with a legitimate defense. Falcons look terrible this year, too. Aaron Rodgers is playing other-level football right now and so I'm buying them over anyone until they show a sign of weakness.
Detroit over Chicago: Part of me wants to pick Chicago just because it feels like it's time and it's the only legit threat Detroit will face until Thanksgiving against Green Bay. I think it's the first game in a few weeks Detroit doesn't fall behind epic bad early and doesn't have to play heroics to catch up, though. Jay Cutler will be breathing through a straw when Suh rips up that weak O-Line, too.