Let's talk division winners I initially had going into the season. In the AFC, I had the Jets, Steelers, Texans and Raiders. In the NFC, I had Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle. As turd sandwiches, I had a few teams listed that have turned out to be quite good (Cincinnati and Buffalo being the two big ones.) So far, I think a lot of those are holding up.
- AFC East:
Jets, okay they look bad at times. They are starting to gel now, though, which is the right time to do so. Patriots have just an utterly soft defense, too. The Bills with their surprising year look awesome. Biggest reason being their O is actually pretty good, and while they have some deficiencies on defense, they manage to get a lot of turnovers and that is how you win games. If I was going to say which team takes that division here at the midmark, I think I'm going Buffalo. They have the easiest schedule remaining of any of those teams, and I am a fan of opportunistic teams.
- AFC North:
The AFC North is looking like the new AFC division to beat. The Browns are surprisingly bad, but everyone else is great. Not saying the Browns were supposed to be good this year, but definitely better than they have played. Cincinnati is turning heads, though. They are using the prototypical gameplan for AFC North teams: Strong run game, at least one legit passing option, great defense. And, they are flying way under the radar. Steelers looked pretty bad early but Big Ben is playing out of his mind the last few weeks so they are back to the form I thought we'd see this season. The Ravens are a head-scratcher, though. Their record is good, but man that team looks terrible the last two weeks. They dropped just a mystifying loss to the Jaguars on MNF and by all means should have lost to the Cardinals this past week. That offense looks straight inept at times, and it boggles my mind because I like their QB, love their running back, and am a huge fan of at least one of their receivers (Anquan "I broke my face and returned the next week" Boldin). Still have the Steelers winning the division, though.
- AFC South
The AFC South is a mess, aren't they? Texans dropped a game or two in weird fashion, but when they look good, they look great. Tennessee was looking decent for awhile but then became what I thought they'd be, and that's an inept offense. The Colts are looking just... abysmal. It's amazing to me how terrible that team is just because number 18 isn't under center. Not much to say about the Jags, either, other than how their QB looks like the QB from "Remember The Titans." Texans should still win that division and get their first playoff berth as a franchise, so I'm excited for them.
- AFC West
The AFC West got a whole lot more interesting after this MNF debacle. Remember how I said the Chargers should win this division on paper? Well, paper it is. Team is choking hardcore, and my boy Phillip is in large part to blame. Yeah the rest of the team is looking poor too but he's still the one throwing bad passes and making mind-numbing mental errors like the one that cost them this week's game. The Raiders I think are the best team in this division with a huge asterisk now that Jason Campbell is down for the year with a broken collar bone. They better pray to whatever dark and mysterious gods that organization has worshiped the last 40 years Carson Palmer can get back to football playing form soon, because Boller is a joke. They'd be better with JaMarcus Russel than that hack. (Okay, not really.) And let's talk Chiefs for a second. I am baffled by how they looked like the most legit bad team in the league through the first three weeks. They didn't just lose; they got decimated. And now they've rattled off 4 wins in a row to be in that three way tie for the division lead. Totally amazing and that locker room better be proud of themselves right now. And I don't even wanna talk about the Denver Tebows right now because ugh.
- NFC East
Switching conference, I think the most interesting division in the NFC has got to be the NFC East. Redskins looked like they were contenders early for reals, and have totally collapsed the last few weeks. I blame Shanahan for benching Grossman after one bad game, which I think sends the wrong message to the locker room. The Eagles went on an impressive 4 game losing streak but are playing the way we figured they would lately, with an absolutely dominant performance against the next team, Dallas. Dallas can't finish, and in this last week, couldn't even friggin' begin. I am selling my Cowboys stock and I wish I hadn't bought any in the first place because eww, Cowboys. The only team playing consistently inconsistent is the Giants. Eli Manning is looking really good lately, despite having third stringers to throw to. Now that his brother is out for an indefinite time, he's stepped up into the spotlight. Oddly enough, I'm sticking with the Eagles. I know they looked epic bad for awhile but the win against Dallas was beautiful, and a statistic I think shouldn't be overlooked is their offense is the best in terms of yards per game in the NFL. In fact, they are on a record-breaking pace. Their Achilles' heel has been turnovers. They don't turn the ball over, they win and win big.
- NFC North
The NFC North is looking just like I imagined. Green Bay is tearing heads off people and sucking the gushing blood like freakish vampires, and Detroit is proving they can hang. Chicago is looking pretty decent, too, although they are a very Jekyll-Hyde team. One week, they rely on Cutler and get stomped. Then they rely on Forte, which ends up giving Cutler the opportunity to shine. Seems pretty obvious to me: Run the damn ball. The Vikings looked terrible til they made that change at QB. I'm suddenly a fan of Christian Ponder. I didn't think he'd fly well in the NFL but kid is legit. He's got an arm and has game presence I didn't think he'd pull off. Too bad for the Vikings they're in an inescapable hole.
- NFC South
The NFC South is just bizarre. One week, every team looks phenominal, and the next to a team look god-awful. How do you lose to Rams? How does that even happen? With a back-up QB no less. Still, New Orelans might have those weird bad mojo games like they did this week, but I expect them to bounce back and fully expect the other teams to stay middle-piddle-fiddles.
- NFC West
That just leaves the NFC West. All I have to say is San Francisco. Where the hell has that organization been the last decade? Gotta love their head coach. They didn't even really add any new talent, and are playing just exceptional football. They are good at all three phases of the game right now, and Alex Smith is playing like he was at BYU, how people expected he should have played the last couple of years. About time he lived up to his potential. Every other team is trying to figure out how to lose games fast enough to draft better quarterbacks, so I'm pretty sure San Fran is a lock to win that division and potentially a second seed when the playoffs roll around. I'm impressed.
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As for my picks last week, I went 11/13, and one of the ones I missed I'm pretty sure everyone did in that stunner upset the Rams pulled off. My other lost pick was because of just an inexcusable fumble to close out regulation, so I could have easily been totally correct this week.
Here comes the part you've all been waiting for: My picks for next week!
PREDICTIONS WEEK 9
Kansas City over Miami - Pretty easy call here. I doubt I pick Miami to win a game. They'll still manage it somewhere along the lines, but man they are pretty awful. I think Kansas City keeps their win streak up at least one more week.
Houston over Cleveland - Not a surprise, again. Cleveland is such a mess. Peyton Hillis going all diva and not playing til he gets a restructured contract is the death of that team. I am also really disappointed in Colt McCoy because he is just not playing worth a damn this year. He can't throw more than 20 yards downfield.
Atlanta over Indianapolis - This might be Indy's first win, but as I've stated previously I'm not going to take them in a game til they can actually put together a complete game. I'm still selling my Falcons stock, but I mean the Clots are just terrible.
Seattle over Dallas - I was able to pick one of Seattle's earlier wins and it was oddly enough against this division. Dallas was so epic bad this last week, I just don't think they can right the ship with only a week to go. Seattle seems to luck out with running into decent teams while they are at their weakest and manage to capitalize on it.
San Francisco over Washington - I think this had the potential to be a legit game if this was a couple weeks ago, but leave it up to one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the league to dysfunction all over again. San Francisco wins this one big, and I expect another monster game from Frank Gore.
Buffalo over New York Jets - If you read my mid-point message earlier, you already know why I'm going this way.
New Orleans over Tampa Bay - I know New Orelans got manhandled by a turd sandwich team this last week, but it was on the road. All of the Saints losses are on the road. They are still money and home and Drew Brees hasn't had two back to back crappy games in his whole career (as far as I know!)
Cincinnati over Tennessee - The Titans are starting to look like I expected they'd be all season. Also, the Steelers obliterated the Titans so I think the Bengals mimic the same success.
ADDITION 11/3/2011: Someone pointed out to me "Who has Cincinnati beat?" Excellent observation, because it hasn't been anyone significant. They beat Cleveland (division rival, and a team that is only 3-4 at this point), Buffalo (their only win against a legit good team as Buffalo sits at 5-2 currently), Jacksonville (2-6), Indianapolis (0-8) and Seattle (2-5). They lost to San Francisco, who have beaten just about everyone this year, and to the Denver Broncos while they were still starting Kyle Orton. So, one win against good competition and one loss against terrible competition. I'm still picking them to win this game to prove they aren't flukes, but don't be surprised if Tennessee bounces back from their two difficult prior weeks.
Denver over Oakland - This is probably my surprise pick of the week. I'm just unsure about what Palmer will bring to the table. If he plays like we know he can play, then I'm gonna get crushed on this pick, but Oakland's offense was just so terrible against the Chiefs I'm not sure they fix it in just the bye week. Tebow won't be getting Tebowed this game the same way he was in Detroit, either. But man, this was pretty:
Stephen Tulloch is my new hero.
New England over New York Giants - This should actually be a pretty good game, but you just don't pick against Tom Brady playing in Foxborough especially after coming off a loss like they just suffered. I give the Giants a fighter's chance but New England should win in the end.
Green Bay over San Diego - A team which can finish against a team that can't. Theoretically the Chargers should at least be able to make this a game, but dude they are so full of fail right now. I'm not sure I'd pick them against a BAD team, let alone the best in the league.
St. Louis over Arizona - This should be an interesting matchup just from the standpoint it's two utterly amazingly bad teams. Difference being St. Louis seemed to figure something out this week, while Arizona let one of the only good games they've played all season slip away from them. Then again, Arizona might have a big chip on their shoulder about that loss and might finally step up. This game is a toss up for me.
Pittsburgh over Baltimore - The Ravens just have no looked good the last two weeks. They lost and then almost lost to two bad teams, while Pittsburgh has hit their stride. As I usually say, pick the team streaking, not the team shrinking. Plus, you gotta give Pittsburgh the emotional advantage because these teams utterly despise each other and they're going to want to redeem the beatdown they suffered in week 1. Homefield, too, so keep your eyes out for yellow towels.
Philadelphia over Chicago - Philly is streaking finally. As I said, they have the most YPG in the league and can put up points against anyone. If they don't turn the ball over, they win and quite possibly win big time. Should be a great matchup either way, and it's one I'm going to tune into for sure. Good thing it's Monday Night so I don't need to worry about other competing games for my interest.
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